Peer-Reviewed Publication
BMJ Open2026;16(9):e115240.September 16, 2026Journal Article

Recurrence detection in patients with triple-negative breast cancer following the current standard of care: a microsimulation model.

Sumeyye Samur1, Oya Hoban2, Ning Yan Gu3, Gebra Cuyun Carter3, Melanie Palomares3, Brad Arrick3, Emir Gursel2, Yasin Yildiz2, Turgay Ayer4, Jagpreet Chhatwal5, Heather A Parsons6,7
1Value Analytics Labs, Boston, Massachusetts, USA ssamur@valueanalyticslabs.com.
2Value Analytics Labs, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
3Exact Sciences Corporation, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
4H. Milton Stewart School of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology College of Engineering, Atlanta, Georgia, USA.
5Institute for Technology Assesment, Massachusetts General Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
6Clinical Research Division, Fred Hutch Cancer Center; and Hematology & Oncology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA.
7Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Breast cancer is the most common cancer among women in the USA, accounting for approximately 31% of new cases and 15% of cancer-related deaths in females. Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is the most lethal subtype with 29 months median overall survival. Despite curative-intent surgery and systemic adjuvant therapy, many patients remain at risk for recurrence. We developed a compre…

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