Anticipating health and care trajectories from routinely collected social care records.

Xiao Gu¹, Rebecca Nourse², Lei Lu³, Emily Smout⁴, Karen Fuller⁴, Fiona Havord⁴, Victoria Baran⁴, Adam Briggs^4,5, Lei Clifton², Andrew Farmer², David A Clifton⁶

¹Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. xiao.gu@eng.ox.ac.uk.

²Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

³School of Life Course and Population Sciences, King's College London, London, UK.

⁴Oxfordshire County Council, Oxford, UK.

⁵University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.

⁶Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.

PubMed DOI

Abstract

Predictive modelling in healthcare has advanced rapidly, yet social care systems, despite their central role in supporting vulnerable populations, remain underexplored in this domain. In this study, we apply machine learning to a large, pseudonymised dataset of social care records from 27,590 adults in Oxfordshire, encompassing around 90% of individuals receiving care in the region. We developed m…

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