Peer-Reviewed Publication
Eur Heart J2026August 29, 2026Journal Article
Development and external validation of the SCORE2 models in Latin America and the Caribbean (SCORE2-LAC) to estimate 10-year cardiovascular disease risk.
Stella Bijkerk1, Carlos I Ponte-Negretti2, Ko Ko Maung3, Louisa Gnatiuc Friedrichs4, Jesús Alegre-Díaz5, Simon G Anderson6, Claudia Bambs7,8, Mauricio L Barreto9, Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz10, Stefan Blankenberg11,12,13, Alfredo Cabrera-Villamizar14, Rodrigo M Carrillo-Larco15, Luis F S Castro-de-Araujo16,17, William Checkley18,19, Sandra Cortés7,20,21, Jannick A N Dorresteijn1, Walter G Espeche22,23, Catterina Ferreccio7,8, Patrícia Fortes C de Macêdo9, Oscar H Franco24, Sergio Gimenez25, Gonzalo C Grazioli26, Christina Howitt27, Vilma E Irazola28,29, Stephen Kaptoge30,31, Pablo Kuri-Morales32, Fernando Lanas33, Bernardo Layerle34,35, José P Lopez-Lopez36, Thiess Lorenz11,12,13,37, Paulo A Lotufo38, Claudia Marco7,8, J Jaime Miranda18,39, Carolina Nazzal20,40, José Ortellado41, Julia M Pescarini9,42, Franco Peverelli43, Alejandro Pomi44, Luiz E Ritt45,46, Carlos Daniel Rodríguez-Ariza14, Martín Salazar22, Carlos A Sánchez-Vallejo14,47, Pamela Seron48, Itamar de Souza Santos38, Roberto Tapia-Conyer5, Pedro Zitko20,49, Emanuele Di Angelantonio30,31,50,51,52, Pedro M Marques-Vidal3, Ana M Abreu53,54, Frank L J Visseren1, Steven H J Hageman1, ,
1Department of Vascular Medicine & Endocrinology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Heidelberglaan 100, Utrecht 3584 CX, The Netherlands.
2Cardiometabolic Medicine Unit, La Floresta Medical Institute, Caracas, Venezuela.
3Department of Medicine, Internal Medicine, Lausanne University Hospital and University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland.
4Clinical Trial Service Unit & Epidemiological Studies Unit, Nuffield Department of Population Health, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
5Experimental Research Unit, Faculty of Medicine, National Autonomous University of Mexico, Mexico City, Mexico.
6The George Alleyne Chronic Disease Research Centre, Caribbean Institute for Health Research (CAIHR), The University of the West Indies, Glasgow Caribbean Centre for Development Research, The University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston, Jamaica.
7Advanced Center for Chronic Diseases, Universidad de Chile and Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
8Faculty of Medicine, School of Medicine, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
9Centre for Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil.
10School of Health Sciences, Universidad Científica del Sur, Lima, Peru.
11Department of Cardiology, University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany.
12Center for Population Health Innovation (POINT), University Heart and Vascular Center Hamburg, University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, Hamburg, Germany.
13German Center for Cardiovascular Research (DZHK), Partner Site Hamburg/Kiel/Lübeck, Hamburg, Germany.
14Section of Clinical Cardiology, Department of Internal Medicine, Hospital Universitario Fundación Santa Fe de Bogotá, Bogotá, Colombia.
15Hubert Department of Global Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, USA.
16Department of Psychiatric and Behavioral Genetics, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, VA, USA.
17Department of Psychiatry, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia.
18CRONICAS Center of Excellence in Chronic Diseases, Universidad Peruana Cayetano Heredia, Lima, Peru.
19Division of Pulmonary and Critical Care, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
20Escuela de Salud Publica, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
21Centro de Desarrollo Urbano Sustentable, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile, Santiago, Chile.
22Facultad de Ciencias Médicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, La Plata, BA, Argentina.
23Unidad de Enfermedades Cardiometabólicas, Servicio de Clínica Médica, Hospital General San Martín, La Plata, BA, Argentina.
24Department of Global Public Health and Bioethics, Julius Centre for Health Sciences and Primary Care, University Medical Centre (UMC) Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.
25Department of Cardiology, Obra Social de Empleados Públicos, Mendoza, Argentina.
26Cardiology Department, Aptima Clinic Center, Barcelona, Spain.
27George Alleyne Chronic Disease Centre, University of the West Indies, Jemmotts Lane, Bridgetown, Barbados.
28Southern Cone American Center of Excellence for Cardiovascular Health, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy, Buenos Aires, Argentina.
29Department of Research in Chronic Diseases, Institute for Clinical Effectiveness and Health Policy (IECS), Buenos Aires, Argentina.
30British Heart Foundation Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
31Department of Public Health and Primary Care, Victor Phillip Dahdaleh Heart and Lung Research Institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
32Estudio Origen, Instituto Tecnológico de Monterrey, Monterrey, Mexico.
33Internal Medicine Department and Cardiovascular Diseases Research Center, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile.
34Coordinator of the Cardiology Department, British Hospital, Montevideo, Uruguay.
35Uruguayan Society of Cardiology, Montevideo, Uruguay.
36Masira Research Institute, Universidad de Santander (UDES), Bucaramanga, Colombia.
37Alliance for Medical Research in Africa, Dakar, Senegal.
38Clinical and Epidemiological Research Center, University Hospital, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
39Sydney School of Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Health, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia.
40Sociedad Chilena de Cardiología y Cirugía Cardiovascular, Grupo de Estudios Multicéntricos del Infarto (GEMI), Santiago, Chile.
41Administration, Universidad Católica de Asunción, Universidad Uninorte, Asunción, Paraguay.
42Departments of Infectious Disease Epidemiology (JMP) and Epidemiology and Population Health (LS), Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
43Facultad de Medicina, Universidad de la República Orienal del Uruguay, Montevideo, Uruguay.
44Sociedad Uruguaya de Cardiología, Cardiólogo del Hospital Español, Montevideo, Uruguay.
45Health and Medicine Postgraduate Program, Bahiana School of Medicine and Public Health, Salvador, BA, Brazil.
46Department of Cardiology, D'Or Research Institute IDOR, Salvador, BA, Brazil.
47Faculty of Medicine, Universidad de los Andes, Bogotá, Colombia.
48Rehabilitation Sciences Department and CIGES, Universidad de La Frontera, Temuco, Chile.
49Health Services and Population Research Department, Institute of Psychiatry, Psychology, and Neuroscience, King's College London, London, UK.
50National Institute for Health and Care Research Blood and Transplant Research Unit in Donor Health and Behaviour, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
51Health Data Research UK Cambridge, Wellcome Genome Campus and University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.
52Health Data Science Research Centre, Human Technopole, Milan, Italy.
53Cardiology Department, Cardiovascular Rehabilitation Unit, Hospital Santa Maria (ULSSM), Lisbon, Portugal.
54Institute of Environmental Health (ISAMB) and Institute of Preventive Medicine (IMPSP), CAML, Medical School, University of Lisbon, Lisbon, Portugal.
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Despite the high burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), risk prediction models adapted for use in LAC populations remain limited. The aim of this study was to recalibrate the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation 2 (SCORE2) risk models for estimating 10-year CVD risk in individuals without prior CVD or diabetes mellitus in LAC, resulting…
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