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Peer-Reviewed Publication
Nat Commun2026;17(1)July 21, 2026Journal Article

Quantifying UK coastal flood exposure under future sea-level rise to 2300.

M D Palmer1,2, J Savage3, P D Bates3,4, J Neal3,4
1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK. matthew.palmer@metoffice.gov.uk.
2School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. matthew.palmer@metoffice.gov.uk.
3Fathom, Bristol, UK.
4School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
PubMed DOI

Abstract

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment report highlighted the potential for more than 15 m of global sea-level rise by 2300. In this study, we explore the implications for UK coastal flood exposure by combining national-scale flood modelling with physically-based storylines of UK sea-level rise. By 2100 all storylines show broadly similar results with at least an additiona…

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