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Peer-Reviewed Publication
Nat Commun2026;17(1)March 19, 2026Journal Article

The relative role of direct orbital forcing versus CO2 and ice feedbacks on Quaternary climate.

C J R Williams1,2, N S Lord3, A T Kennedy-Asser4, X Ren4, D A Richards4, M Crucifix5, A Kontula6, M Thorne7, P J Valdes4, G L Foster8, R M Brown8, E L McClymont9, D J Lunt4
1School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK. c.j.r.williams@bristol.ac.uk.
2Department of Geography, University College London, London, UK. c.j.r.williams@bristol.ac.uk.
3Fathom, Bristol, UK.
4School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK.
5Earth and Life Institute,, Université Catholique de Louvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
6Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, Eurajoki, Finland.
7Mike Thorne and Associates Limited, Quarry Cottage, Hamsterley, Bishop Auckland, Co, Durham, UK.
8School of Ocean and Earth Science, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
9Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK.

Abstract

During the Quaternary (the last 2.58 million years), Earth's climate has fluctuated between glacials and interglacials, paced by external forcings and mediated by internal feedbacks. However, General Circulation Models (GCMs), essential for addressing the mechanisms associated with these fluctuations, require substantial computational resources, meaning they are unsuitable for exploring orbital-sc…

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