A spatially adaptive empirical Bayes framework with dynamic dispersion parameters for enhanced crash frequency prediction across rural highway networks.

Seyed Ahmadreza Almasi¹, Jingzhen Yang²

¹Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Razi University, Kermanshah, Iran. Electronic address: SA.Almasi@razi.ac.ir.

²Center for Injury Research and Policy at the Abigail Wexner Research Institute, Nationwide Children's Hospital, Columbus, OH, USA; Department of Pediatrics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH, USA. Electronic address: Ginger.Yang@nationwidechildrens.org.

PubMed DOI

Abstract

Traffic crashes often exhibit strong spatial dependence that is insufficiently captured by the Empirical Bayes (EB) method recommended in the Highway Safety Manual (HSM). This study proposes a Spatially Adaptive Empirical Bayes (SA-EB) framework that integrates advanced spatial models, including Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression (MG…

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