Building a Time-Series Model to Predict Hospitalization Risks in Home Health Care: Insights Into Development, Accuracy, and Fairness.

Maxim Topaz¹, Anahita Davoudi², Lauren Evans², Sridevi Sridharan², Jiyoun Song³, Sena Chae⁴, Yolanda Barrón², Mollie Hobensack⁵, Danielle Scharp⁵, Kenrick Cato⁶, Sarah Collins Rossetti⁷, Piotr Kapela², Zidu Xu⁵, Pallavi Gupta⁵, Zhihong Zhang⁸, Margaret V Mcdonald², Kathryn H Bowles⁹

¹Columbia University School of Nursing, New York City, NY, USA; Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA; Center for Home Care Policy and Research, VNS Health, New York City, NY, USA. Electronic address: mtopaz80@gmail.com.

²Center for Home Care Policy and Research, VNS Health, New York City, NY, USA.

³Department Behavioral Health Sciences, University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

⁴College of Nursing, The University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA.

⁵Columbia University School of Nursing, New York City, NY, USA.

⁶School of Nursing, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

⁷Columbia University School of Nursing, New York City, NY, USA; Department of Biomedical Informatics, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA.

⁸Columbia University School of Nursing, New York City, NY, USA; Data Science Institute, Columbia University, New York City, NY, USA.

⁹Center for Home Care Policy and Research, VNS Health, New York City, NY, USA; Department Behavioral Health Sciences, University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing, Philadelphia, PA, USA; New Courtland Center for Transitions and Health, School of Nursing, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA.

PubMed DOI

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Home health care (HHC) serves more than 5 million older adults annually in the United States, aiming to prevent unnecessary hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) visits. Despite efforts, up to 25% of patients in HHC experience these adverse events. The underutilization of clinical notes, aggregated data approaches, and potential demographic biases have limited previous HHC ris…

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