Peer-Reviewed Publication
Epilepsy Res2024;208107474.December 1, 2024Journal Article

Necessary for seizure forecasting outcome metrics: Seizure frequency and benchmark model.

Chi-Yuan Chang1, Boyu Zhang2, Robert Moss3, Rosalind Picard4, M Brandon Westover5, Daniel Goldenholz6
1Harvard Medical School, Boston MA, United States; Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, United States. Electronic address: cchang10@bidmc.harvard.edu.
2Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Empatica USA, Cambridge, MA, United States; Brigham and Women's Hospital, Boston, MA, United States. Electronic address: boyuz@media.mit.edu.
3Seizure Tracker LLC, Springfield, VA, United States. Electronic address: rob@seizuretracker.com.
4Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Empatica USA, Cambridge, MA, United States. Electronic address: picard@media.mit.edu.
5Harvard Medical School, Boston MA, United States; Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, United States. Electronic address: bwestove@bidmc.harvard.edu.
6Harvard Medical School, Boston MA, United States; Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston, MA, United States. Electronic address: daniel.goldenholz@bidmc.harvard.edu.

Abstract

BACKGROUND: This study aims to illustrate the connection between seizure frequency (SF) and performance metrics in seizure forecasting, and to compare the effectiveness of a moving average (MA) model versus the commonly used permutation benchmark. METHODS: Metrics of calibration and discrimination were computed for each dataset, comparing MA and permutation performance across SF values. Three dat…

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